This week closes a run of structural shifts that operators can no longer treat as temporary: US tariff relief has expired into a new global surcharge regime, Indonesia's state export monopoly for coal, palm oil and ferroalloys is now active, and the Strait of Hormuz remains a live supply constraint on oil and shipping. Leaders across Indonesia and ASEAN should treat September as the month that locks in cost structures for the next planning cycle.
The 90-day IEEPA pause that held ASEAN export tariffs at a 10% baseline expired in July 2026, restoring country rates of 32% for Indonesia, 36% for Thailand, 46% for Vietnam and 24% for Malaysia for exporters without a finalized bilateral deal, per USTR Federal Register notice, 18 August 2026. Layered on top, the US Section 122 global tariff surcharge of 10% takes full effect for all companies on 29 September 2026, replacing the prior IEEPA-based regime entirely, per Zonos US Import Tariff Tracker, 11 September 2026.
Operators with US-bound manufacturing or sourcing in ASEAN now face a stacked cost base: country-specific reciprocal duties plus a universal 10% surcharge, plus Section 301 forced-labor tariffs of 10 to 12.5% already in force since 24 July 2026 for Indonesia, Cambodia, Malaysia, and higher for Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam, per Industrial Automation Asia, 4 August 2026. Decision: reprice US-facing contracts now and model landed cost under the combined regime rather than waiting for bilateral deal news.
32% US reciprocal tariff rate reinstated on Indonesian exports
Government Regulation 24/2026 has moved from announcement to phased rollout: coal, palm oil and ferroalloy producers began submitting export documentation to PT Danantara Sumberdaya Indonesia (DSI) from 1 June 2026, with DSI progressively becoming the sole authorized exporter or intermediary, per Lexology, 3 September 2026. Foreign companies holding direct export contracts must now restructure around DSI as owner or sole intermediary, displacing existing export-facing roles entirely, per HLC Publications, 29 August 2026.
This directly touches long-term supply contracts with Japan and Korea; Japan alone imported US$2.86 billion in Indonesian coal under prior arrangements now subject to SOE price-setting authority, per Indonesia's Export Control Plan, 24 July 2026. Decision: exporters and offtake buyers should open DSI-facing contract renegotiations immediately rather than after the September deadline passes, and treat pricing terms as no longer bilaterally set.
Sept 2026 deadline for full SOE control of coal, palm oil, iron alloy exports
The Strait of Hormuz remains partially closed following Iran's March 2026 declaration, with at least 17 merchant ships damaged and a US-led naval escort and aerial campaign ongoing, per Congress.gov, 31 August 2026. Saudi Aramco's Q2 2026 hydrocarbon output fell 25% year on year to 9.5 mmboed, down from 12.614 mmboed in Q1, with crude averaging $108 per barrel, as CEO Amin Nasser cited the Hormuz disruption as the defining challenge of the first half, per Energies Media, 19 August 2026.
Even after a June 2026 interim US-Iran deal moderated Brent from around $120, Iran continues to assert transit fees and vessel control rights, with a Saudi supertanker and a Qatari LNG carrier attacked since the deal, per Oxford Energy Forum, 29 July 2026. Decision: energy-intensive manufacturers and shippers routing through or dependent on Gulf-origin crude should keep hedging positions and freight contingency plans active; this is not a resolved risk.
9.5 mmboed Aramco Q2 2026 hydrocarbon output, down from 12.78 mmboed a year earlier
China exported over 131 million metric tonnes of steel in 2025, up 13.8% on 2024's 115 MMT, with ASEAN receiving a disproportionate share of the surplus, per OECD Steel Outlook 2026, 28 August 2026. In 88 documented product-country cases, Chinese exports to ASEAN rose after OECD anti-dumping and countervailing actions elsewhere, with 51 of those cases showing clear circumvention patterns.
ASEAN-based steel users benefit from lower input costs in the near term, but downstream exporters selling steel-intensive goods into the US or EU face rising exposure to trade-remedy investigations tied to transshipment concerns. Decision: manufacturers sourcing ASEAN steel for export-facing production should document country-of-origin and processing evidence now, ahead of likely trade-remedy scrutiny.
131 MMT Chinese steel exports in 2025, up 13.8% year on year
The Federal Reserve's FOMC decision lands 16 September 2026 after a divided 9-3 vote in July to hold rates at 3.50-3.75%; CME FedWatch showed a 58.6% probability of a hold following Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's hawkish Jackson Hole remarks, which have already lifted the dollar index, per CME FedWatch/Polymarket, 3 September 2026. Governor Christopher Waller has signaled a preference for holding steady.
Meanwhile the Bank of Japan lifted its policy rate 25 basis points to 1.0% in late July 2026, the first move to this level in over 30 years, with Deputy Governor Himino confirming further hikes are likely as inflation risks build, per Trading Economics, 29 July 2026. Decision: treasurers holding IDR or other ASEAN currency exposure should widen hedging bands; the combination of a hawkish Fed hold and a tightening BOJ is pushing rate differentials against regional currencies.
58.6% probability priced for a Fed hold at the 16 September 2026 meeting
Indonesia's BPOM Regulation 13/2026 now requires every excipient manufacturer to hold a GMP-for-Excipients certificate as the mandatory reference for supplier qualification, promulgated late July 2026, per Veritask, 31 July 2026, while a June circular relaxed raw-material substitution approval to ease import cost burden from rupiah weakness, per DPR/MPR RI hearing, 19 September 2026. Malaysia's NPRA has separately introduced a reliance mechanism and new variation-processing timelines for registered pharmaceutical products, per NPRA circular, 16 September 2026.
In parallel, Indonesia's halal certification mandate for imported chemicals, cosmetics and health supplements takes effect 18 October 2026, though goods can still enter ahead of that date, per ANTARA News, 18 September 2026, and the EU's CS3D due diligence transposition deadline of 26 July 2026 now directly implicates Indonesian palm oil and other value chains, per EU Directive 2024/1760. Decision: compliance and regulatory affairs teams should sequence certification filings against the 18 October and ongoing CS3D timelines now, since grace periods are narrowing across every one of these regimes simultaneously.
18 Oct 2026 start date for Indonesia's halal certification mandate on imported chemicals and cosmetics
Sources this week: White House IEEPA Executive Order · Lexology · USTR Federal Register notice · OECD Steel Outlook 2026 · Zonos US Import Tariff Tracker · US Federal Register / IEEPA Executive Order April 2026 · Congress.gov / Library of Congress · HLC Publications · Energies Media — Aramco Q2 2026 results report · Oxford Energy Forum Issue 149 · Consilium press release · Skadden Arps client alert · EU Directive 2024/1760 (CS3D) · Indonesia's Export Control Plan: What It Means for Commodities · Chinhphu.vn (Vietnam Government Portal) · NPRA circular via Pharma To Market · DPR/MPR RI hearing · Veritask · WTO news release · Industrial Automation Asia · ANTARA News · FedRateCalc / Federal Reserve FOMC schedule · CME FedWatch / Polymarket via growbeansprout.com and predictionmarketspicks.com · Trading Economics / Deputy Governor Himino parliamentary statement